thoughts on the future of Israel

1. The Arabs only need to defeat Israel once. Israel has to beat them every time. No country goes undefeated forever. Even the mighty British lost to Afghanistan and the US, which lost to Vietnam and Afghanistan. China lost to many countries during the Boxer Rebellion and later lost to Vietnam. Russia lost to Japan, then Germany in WW1, and later Afghanistan. Likewise, France, Germany, and Japan have lost major wars. 

2. US support for Israel with steadily wane as its demographics change and whites become a minority. American support for Israel mainly comes from American Jews and white evangelicals. 

3. If Israel stops building settlements and lifts the blockade of Gaza, there is a chance for lasting peace, or at least a long lull in the fighting.

4. Israel will always be surrounded by enemies. Its only hope for survival is to be self-sufficient and turn itself into a fortress. 

5. International pressure ended apartheid in South Africa, and it could lead to a radical change in Israel's government.

6. Israel can't get lasting peace by annihilating its enemies or even soundly defeating them. The only reason there has been peace between Israel and Egypt is because Egypt recaptured the Sinai and inflicted heavy losses on Israel in 1973.  

7. If Israel gets invaded and occupied, they will have to fight their way out with guerilla warfare as Vietnam and Afghanistan have done multiple times. 

conundrum

 

This cartoon jammed halfway through.

conundrum

 

thoughts on Africa's future - agricultural adjustment and neocolonialism

Intensive agriculture with fertilizer, pesticides, and machines has been slow to catch on in sub-Saharan Africa. This combined with high unemployment means a return to subsistence agriculture is likely in the long term if there is no other intervention. 

The problem is traditional methods won't produce enough food to feed Africa's population. It seems the only options are increasing dependence on food aid and imports or letting disease, famine, and war restore the balance. There are 1.6 billion people in Africa now, but only 140 million when they were self-sufficient for food in 1900. 

Alternatively, there could be a mass migration out of Africa, but most countries would be reluctant to accept large numbers of them. 

Birth control could help, but it too has been slow to catch on, though there has been a gradual decline in fertility over the past century. 

Another option would be to allow foreign farmers to buy land in Africa and raise crops. This would be unpopular, but it would solve the food shortage problem. Neocolonialism to the rescue?

China may become the star of neocolonialism. If Africans let them build infrastructure, they'd probably let them farm. China needs food imports and also has a large pool of unemployed young men. I can see Zimbabwe letting Chinese workers grow food on formerly white-owned farms. South Africa might do the same. The Chinese would have to hire enough Africans to sweeten the deal or provide some other incentive. 

When I was in Tanzania, I saw that pretty much everyone was a farmer, and most were pretty good at it. I tried my hand at it but only succeeded in growing a small bunch of bananas. Hivyo ilivyo (that's the way it is). 

thoughts on America's future - the new Brazil?

1. There will be a gradual takeover of US cities by socialist mayors. Politics is downstream of culture which is downstream from demographics. The current trend is that people who vote socialist will become an increasingly large share of the population. Currently, of 100 largest US cities, only 22 have Republican mayors. Of the top 30, only 2 have Republican mayors, and both are in Texas (Dallas and Fort Worth). 

2. Cities will be multiracial while suburbs and rural areas will become increasingly white. This means whites will be in control of the food and fuel, which gives them the upper hand in any future civil war.

They'll also have most of the guns and the most people with combat experience. 

3. Spanish speakers will be a majority in many areas. This will force others to either learn it or move to an anglophone area. 

4. By 2050, most of the retirees will be white and most of the workers non-white. Cuts to Social Security are inevitable. 

5. Moderate to high inflation is inevitable, though there is a small chance of hyperinflation. 

6. Overall, the country probably won't collapse of fall into civil war, but gradual balkanization is most likely outcome. India is a country of great diversity, but also poverty and tension. South Africa is very diverse, but also plagued by disease, poverty, and crime. The most likely fate of the US is that it will end up being somewhat like the way Brazil is today. 

getting white liberals to see the light

I'm a white America man and have spent much time associating with white American liberals. I know what they think and why, and unfortunately, much of what they think is objectively wrong. Aside from being annoying, this causes them to support harmful policies that hurt everyone. There won't be any progress until enough minds have been changed. Below is my quick attempt at doing that.

1. Stereotypes are generally accurate, or at least, they contain some truth. That's why they exist. Yes, there are always outliers, but stereotypes are right more often than not.

2. White liberals spend a lot of time and effort trying to be morally superior, yet the world goes on as usual. What's the point of virtue signaling? Just do what you think is right and don't make a show of it. Besides, it rarely impresses anyone. 

3. Whites, past and present, have done evil things. But they have done many more great things, including defeating evils such as slavery and fascism. Those soldiers who stormed the beaches of Normandy were not hippies. Most of the books, songs, and movies you like are also the product of white men. They are also the reason we have electricity, cars, airplanes, and computers. Give some credit where it's due. 

4. If you think Republicans or Southerners are dumb, racist, gun-toting, religious fanatics, how do you plan on sharing a country full of them? By the way, many of them think you're naive, weak, cowardly, and amoral. Who's right? Maybe it's a little bit of both. Having blue states and red states helps keep the peace. 

5. If you lock your house and car to protect it, what's wrong with locking our country with a border? Every other country does. 

6. English is the international language of science, business, and aviation, among other things. It's also studied in every country. All Americans should be able to speak it and read it. The fact that many can't means the education system needs a serious overhaul. 

7. Men and women are different in important and predictable ways. This was largely unquestioned until recently. No amount of ideology can overcome biology. In Poland, they say feminism ends when a refrigerator needs to be moved up 3 flights of stairs. 

8. Most white people, and people in general, want the same things as you. They just have different ways of trying to get it. Tolerance means letting people pursue happiness the way they want. What could be more American than that?

achieving peace in a multicultural society

There are essential steps:

1. The majority or plurality group, if there is one, must remain dominant. Malaysia is an example of this, and Sri Lanka is an example of how this can go wrong. 

2.There must be a general acceptance that different groups will have different outcomes. 

3. Outliers must be allowed to reach their potential. There will always be some high performers in groups that usually lag. Meritocracy needs to be the standard.

4. Each group must be allowed to have its own territory where it is the majority. Chinatowns are an example of this. 

5. Groups should neither be forced together or kept apart. Freedom of association should be absolute. The US military is all-volunteer and is a good example of a voluntary multicultural organization. 

6. There must be either a common language or widespread bilingualism, such as in Switzerland and India.