The Simpsons vs nuclear power

It's a great show I immensely enjoyed as a kid. I do hate their anti-nuclear propaganda. Earth to morons, flower power will not solve America's energy problems. Also, France gets 70% of its energy from nuclear plants, and they haven't started glowing in the dark.

The Simpsons - The Governemnt Inspection Team visits the nuclear plant

In real life, there are far more deaths from coal mining and coal power plants than nuclear energy.

Not convinced? Galen Winsor, a former nuclear weapons engineer, ate uranium on camera to prove it's not nearly as dangerous as Hollywood or the government would have us believe:

Galen Winsor says he has been eating uranium (U3O8) on his lecture tour for two years

further reading:

Derpetology: the first thing that should be taught about radiation in science classes

You probably have a smoke detector in your house. Guess what? It has radioactive material in it.

Fun fact: radiation is probably beneficial in low doses because of hormesis. And food poisoning would barely exist if our food was irradiated. 

Part 2: 5/8/09 John Stossel's "You Can't Even Talk About It"

education, immigration, or eugenics? - what brings in more smart people?

The scientific and technological achievements of the US are not because the US has the best educational system, but because it attracts smart people from all over the world. Nuclear weapons and the moon landings were made possible by foreign-born scientists who came to America for a better life (freedom and prosperity). 

In that case, the US should be spending less on education and more on recruiting talented foreigners. Good education can make smart people even smarter, but it can't turn average joes into geniuses. Unfortunately, the best evidence is that intelligence is mostly genetic. 

Eugenics gets a bad rap for many reasons, yet sperm bank customers consistently demand donors with high IQs. Paying high-IQ men to donate sperm would be an easy way to increase the number of smart people. Mensa already has a database of such people. 

There are many existing incentives that reward smart Americans such as scholarships, but these do not lead to smart people having more children. 

More smart people = a better life for everyone. If it's not possible to breed more of them, the ones we have need to be kept alive, happy, and working. 

There is evidence that certain unorthodox educational approaches can be helpful with low-performing groups. This Texas math teacher managed to boost test scores with rap:

Texas teacher brings rap music into the classroom : NPR

Well done, but the US Math Olympiad team remains heavily Asian. They don't train by singing songs about math.

American mathletes come in 4th place in International Mathematical Olympiad - YouTube

Here is what US math teachers are up against:

ADHD Study

And here is the best attempt to make math as interesting as Star Wars:

Math is Art

thoughts on the future of Israel

1. The Arabs only need to defeat Israel once. Israel has to beat them every time. No country goes undefeated forever. Even the mighty British lost to Afghanistan and the US, which lost to Vietnam and Afghanistan. China lost to many countries during the Boxer Rebellion and later lost to Vietnam. Russia lost to Japan, then Germany in WW1, and later Afghanistan. Likewise, France, Germany, and Japan have lost major wars. 

2. US support for Israel with steadily wane as its demographics change and whites become a minority. American support for Israel mainly comes from American Jews and white evangelicals. 

3. If Israel stops building settlements and lifts the blockade of Gaza, there is a chance for lasting peace, or at least a long lull in the fighting.

4. Israel will always be surrounded by enemies. Its only hope for survival is to be self-sufficient and turn itself into a fortress. 

5. International pressure ended apartheid in South Africa, and it could lead to a radical change in Israel's government.

6. Israel can't get lasting peace by annihilating its enemies or even soundly defeating them. The only reason there has been peace between Israel and Egypt is because Egypt recaptured the Sinai and inflicted heavy losses on Israel in 1973.  

7. If Israel gets invaded and occupied, they will have to fight their way out with guerilla warfare as Vietnam and Afghanistan have done multiple times. 

conundrum

 

This cartoon jammed halfway through.

conundrum

 

thoughts on Africa's future - agricultural adjustment and neocolonialism

Intensive agriculture with fertilizer, pesticides, and machines has been slow to catch on in sub-Saharan Africa. This combined with high unemployment means a return to subsistence agriculture is likely in the long term if there is no other intervention. 

The problem is traditional methods won't produce enough food to feed Africa's population. It seems the only options are increasing dependence on food aid and imports or letting disease, famine, and war restore the balance. There are 1.6 billion people in Africa now, but only 140 million when they were self-sufficient for food in 1900. 

Alternatively, there could be a mass migration out of Africa, but most countries would be reluctant to accept large numbers of them. 

Birth control could help, but it too has been slow to catch on, though there has been a gradual decline in fertility over the past century. 

Another option would be to allow foreign farmers to buy land in Africa and raise crops. This would be unpopular, but it would solve the food shortage problem. Neocolonialism to the rescue?

China may become the star of neocolonialism. If Africans let them build infrastructure, they'd probably let them farm. China needs food imports and also has a large pool of unemployed young men. I can see Zimbabwe letting Chinese workers grow food on formerly white-owned farms. South Africa might do the same. The Chinese would have to hire enough Africans to sweeten the deal or provide some other incentive. 

When I was in Tanzania, I saw that pretty much everyone was a farmer, and most were pretty good at it. I tried my hand at it but only succeeded in growing a small bunch of bananas. Hivyo ilivyo (that's the way it is). 

thoughts on America's future - the new Brazil?

1. There will be a gradual takeover of US cities by socialist mayors. Politics is downstream of culture which is downstream from demographics. The current trend is that people who vote socialist will become an increasingly large share of the population. Currently, of 100 largest US cities, only 22 have Republican mayors. Of the top 30, only 2 have Republican mayors, and both are in Texas (Dallas and Fort Worth). 

2. Cities will be multiracial while suburbs and rural areas will become increasingly white. This means whites will be in control of the food and fuel, which gives them the upper hand in any future civil war.

They'll also have most of the guns and the most people with combat experience. 

3. Spanish speakers will be a majority in many areas. This will force others to either learn it or move to an anglophone area. 

4. By 2050, most of the retirees will be white and most of the workers non-white. Cuts to Social Security are inevitable. 

5. Moderate to high inflation is inevitable, though there is a small chance of hyperinflation. 

6. Overall, the country probably won't collapse of fall into civil war, but gradual balkanization is most likely outcome. India is a country of great diversity, but also poverty and tension. South Africa is very diverse, but also plagued by disease, poverty, and crime. The most likely fate of the US is that it will end up being somewhat like the way Brazil is today.