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Monday, March 23, 2026

the future of Africa & population decline

Africa depends on food aid and food, pesticide, and fertilizer imports. At the same time, the countries that supply those things are experiencing population decline while the population of most African countries is projected to expand greatly during this century. 


A similar mismatch is true for fuel and farm machinery; Africa needs it but does not produce it. At the same time, most African farmland is devoted to cash crops rather than domestic consumption. 

At some point in the not-too-distant future, declining populations in North America, Europe, and East Asia will decrease essential exports and aid to Africa, with the latter facing famine and economic chaos.

Free markets, trade, and industrialization are the only way to prevent disaster. More aid will not help. 

There is a big used clothing market in Moshi, near where I used to live in Tanzania. The foreigners who donate clothes mean well, but by flooding the market with cheap clothing, they make it very hard for a domestic textile industry survive. Food aid, while necessary at times, tends to bankrupt struggling farmers, which makes famines even more likely. 

Most African countries are reluctant to let foreign mining companies do business out of fear of exploitation, but the continent's untapped mineral wealth is one of the few ways they can pay for what they will need. 

It's important to remember that a lot can change in a few decades. South Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world in 1960. 30 years later, it became a major exporter and one of the biggest industrialized economies in Asia. 













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