Fabian tactics and the porcupine strategy for Taiwan

Taiwan has enough space in its air raid shelters, though perhaps it may be short of enough supplies to outlast a blockade. The initial Chinese attack on Taiwan will come from ballistic and cruise missiles. Once those are exhausted in perhaps a month or two, the Chinese will use manned aircraft to bombard the island.

For this second phase, it is vital that Taiwan preserve its air force in hardened bunkers rather than send it out to intercept Chinese incursions into its airspace. Taiwanese pilots should also be trained on US carrier-based aircraft, as it is easier to move and support such aircraft with existing hardware. The mere act of painting Taiwanese markings on US carrier-based fighters would give China pause. 

At least one US carrier battle group should be anchored off Taiwan at all times. It should be rotated with a second group based in Japan or South Korea. Any friendly ships that dock in Taiwan should bring food, water, medicine, and fuel to add to Taiwan's national emergency stockpile. 

If the Taiwanese air force is defeated, the next vital phase will require the mass use of anti-ship missiles to counter the Chinese invasion fleet. Sea mines dropped from aircraft could also be useful. More useful still would be to retrofit torpedoes with guidance systems and so turn them into undersea drones that could be launched without aircraft, subs, or ships. Such a system would be an update of the old Brennan torpedo which was launched from shore. 

Above all, it is vitally important to thwart a Chinese amphibious assault. If they succeed in establishing a beachhead, it is only a matter of weeks or months before they conquer the island. 

The Chinese know they have most of the advantages in the coming war, and that includes deciding when it will begin. 

The war in Ukraine is winding down and Russia is on track to win a Pyrrhic victory there. After that, the Chinese are certain to ask favors of Russia as China helped Russia so much in Ukraine. 

I hope for a Taiwanese victory when the war comes. Hope is not a strategy.