Scenario for a war between China and Taiwan

This is the timeline I foresee:

1. China begins a blockade on Taiwan with submarines shortly after the 2024 US presidential election results are announced. The same events will happen regardless of the outcome, but the pace will be faster if Trump wins. Trump's philosophy is to stay out of conflicts that do not benefit the US. 

2. The US and its allies will impose sanctions on China. China will retaliate by blocking critical exports to the US. Taiwan puts naval mines in its waters. US warships and aircraft are staged in the region. 

3. Humanitarian aid to Taiwan begins to arrive by air and sea. The Chinese air force and navy attempt to stop them. Sooner or later, either a Chinese, US, or Taiwanese aircraft is shot down or one of their ships is fired upon.  

4. Air and naval skirmishes escalate. China begins bombarding Taiwan with ballistic and cruise missiles. This leads to a brief ceasefire and a round of negotiations. No agreement is reached, and the war resumes in weeks or days. 

5. Losses on all sides mount, but Taiwan's air force is the first to collapse. China gains air superiority as the US withdraws. Public pressure in the US prevents greater involvement, and protests in Hong Kong are violently suppressed. 

6. The amphibious assault on Taiwan proceeds and leads to a long, bloody battle for the rest of the island. Taiwan's government flees and its military surrenders after six months.

7. The war disrupts the supply of microchips and causes and worldwide economic slump. US dominance in the Pacific ends as China moves to consolidate control within the Nine-dash line. Australia, Vietnam, and the Philippines forge closer ties to counter that control.  

https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1216317476/china-military-taiwan-air-defense

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...China has its sights on Taiwan. Some fear China's gray zone tactics are practice for a real invasion.

"[Chinese forces] can practice their military requirement as they need, and even they can test the response capability from the Taiwanese military," says Lee Hsi-ming, a retired Taiwanese admiral and a former defense chief.

Meanwhile, Taiwan is limited in how it can respond to Chinese pressure. For example, Lee says, every time a Chinese military plane or ship gets too close, Taiwan has to scramble its own jets or ships, and China just has way more of everything. 

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https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-charts-show-chinas-military-advantage-over-taiwan-2022-1

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China's navy vastly outnumbers Taiwan's, with many of its ships are assigned to the Eastern and Southern theater navies.

Those theater navies have 21 of China's 32 destroyers, 41 of its 48 frigates, 33 of 56 diesel-powered attack subs, and four of six nuclear-powered ballistic-missile subs. Those fleets also have 49 of China's 57 medium landing ships and amphibious transport docks, as well as one of China's two aircraft carriers.

By comparison, Taiwan's navy only has four destroyers, 22 frigates, and two submarines. Taiwan has 23 Coast Guard ships in service, a fraction of the Chinese Coast Guard's 223 ships.

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China's air force (PLAAF) and naval aviation force added 100 fighters in 2020. The PLAAF now has 700 fighters, 250 of its 450 bombers/attack aircraft, and 100 of its 150 special-mission aircraft — such as electronic-warfare, reconnaissance, cargo, and tanker planes — stationed near Taiwan.

Taiwan's air force has 400 fighters, no bombers/attack aircraft, and 30 special-mission aircraft.

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