Similarities of the Wars in Israel and Ukraine

Israel got $3 billion in US military aid in 2022 and has been receiving a similar amount annually for decades. Ukraine has gotten over $100 billion since Russia invaded in early 2022. The objective of both countries is to defend their borders and people against overwhelming odds. 

An Israeli military theorist named Martin Van Creveld said that when a strong nation fights a weak one, if they win, they look like monsters and they lose, they look like morons. Israel is stronger than Palestine, but Palestine's ally is Iran, and they are stronger than Israel. The Israelis can defeat the Palestinians, but they cannot defeat the Iranians. In a similar way, Ukraine could have defeated the Donbas separatists, but they cannot defeat Russia. 

The problem with proxy wars is that sooner or later, it becomes necessary for sponsor of the losing side to start fighting directly. The USSR did it in Afghanistan, the US did it in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and China did it in Korea. When one side starts fighting directly, it is likely that it will eventually lose. 

In the end, there will be no lasting peace between Israel and Palestine until Iran is either persuaded or compelled to make peace with Israel. Similarly, there will be no peace in Ukraine until its sponsor, the US, faces pressure to make peace. 

The analysis of proxy conflicts is different when the opposing sides are of unequal strength, and that strength is a blend of material and psychological factors. 

The two principles to keep in mind for long term strategic advantage are:

1) accepting small losses to avoid greater ones

2) using the enemy's strength against him

In the case of Israel, exchanging prisoners for hostages is an example of the first principle. For Ukraine, if the US increased domestic oil production, that would hurt Russia and Iran, so it is an example of the second principle.

All the money that the US has spent on arming Israel and Ukraine would have been better used to fund domestic energy production in the form of nuclear reactors and oil refineries. Alas, the political influence of the global "green" energy movement and US military-industrial complex has stifled that.